[PubliCola's corrOspondent originally published his advice for the president yesterday. We're moving it up.]
Tomorrow night President Obama will address the nation in his first State of the Union (SOTU) address.  Although it feels like this it might be his fourth or fifth SOTU, it truly is his first and comes at a particularly painful time for Democrats who are scrambling for meaning after last week’s loss in deep, deep blue Massachusetts.

Obama has the dubious task of 1.) Winning back independent voters who have left him and the Dem party in droves  2.) Re-igniting liberals and progressives who feel that the health care debate has been an exercise in political bukkake, and 3.) Preventing a snowball effect of Democratic retirements in swing districts.

Without a doubt, tomorrow night the President needs to reset the political agenda for 2010.  Holding firm to this current agenda is political suicide. I hate saying this because I agree with the current agenda. But let’s face it: He’s lost the war of effective messaging on health care and climate change.  Sorry, he’s right on the issues but wrong on the timing of it and he hasn’t done much to enthuse people.  Recognize the political reality, people:  Back burner the current agenda and move the party in a different direction until the second week of November this year. Or suffer more devastating loses.

As part of this new agenda, we very obviously must be hyper-focused on job creation.  And when I say job creation, I mean, figure out a massive public works project that puts people to work, like yesterday.  A jobs creation proposal needs to be bold.  None of this tax cuts for businesses in the hopes that someday they’ll hire someone and cover their health care bullshit.  People are hurting now.  The health care debate has been so confusing and so overly compromised that people don’t believe it will help reduce costs or keep them healthy.

The NY Times predicts Obama’s SOTU speech will cover debt limits, spending freezes and some “modest initiatives intended to help middle class families.”  Modest ain’t bold.  And I am afraid modest won’t reverse sliding approval numbers fast enough.  In order for independents and progressives to rally, you need to launch a bold, jobs creating initiative.  Krugman predicted this dilemma over a year ago: A second supplemental stimulus is required and it needs to be dedicated solely to job creation.  The first stimulus was too small, the effects barely noticed by the average voter.  Now, politically, you cannot push for another huge spending bill without suggesting big cuts in conjunction— that’s just dumb.  So I suggest taking a page from the Gregoire Book of Budgeting and roll out your cuts first and then offer your spending/job creation plans secondarily.

The reason Democrats lost Massachusetts and Republicans lost NY-23 has more to do with the fact that the voters don’t believe either status quo candidate is delivering real results than it does a major political shift one way or the other. Unemployment is too high, debt is too big and the deficit is growing too large. Because Democrats are in charge, they will be punished more severely of course, but look to the GOP primary contests in Florida, Texas, Arizona, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Indiana, Utah and Kentucky to know that the GOP has their own set of issues.  So Obama will do well to say “I learned from Massachusetts and I want you to know, I hear your concerns and you’re right: We got lost in the debate. I got your back.”

When people are angry, all they want is to be heard and validated.  They don’t need to be right or justified, being heard can be enough at times.  So if Obama leaves the stage tomorrow staying the course without moving a new massive agenda and without validating the concerns of the angry populism that caused Massachusetts, expect another 1994 Republican Revolution in less than ten months.

I am thinking about getting out of a long term relationship with my current political party and I am ready to start anew with a hot and truly dominant political party.

Please no smokers.

I know it’s against protocol to talk about your past relationships while seeking new ones, but it might help my suitors to know what I need.  Although, there’s been some titillation in our relationship lately (yay Sotomayor appointment, yay O-speech in Cairo) I’m starting to think that it’s just time we broke up.  See, it’s not that we don’t get along or we don’t see eye-to-eye (although get your shit together on Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell).  We do on most things (yay on health care reform).  Plus, I am really flexible and patient.

Maybe I am patient to a fault. I am so patient that I have been waiting over three years for things to improve between us.  It’s just, I want my dominant political party to be in charge. So, take charge.  If I give you permission to be a dominant political party, be fucking dominant!

I like long walks on the beach and cuddling on the couch too.

One of the things I also enjoy, future suitors, is role play. This is your opportunity, dominant political party, to show me who’s boss.  You’re going to shove that big public option down my throat, aren’t you? Do it!

Well, there is nothing more, um, deflating than seeing, what is supposed to be, a political party in charge – wearing leather chaps and getting ready to dominate – when that look comes across their face of “Oh shit, what do I do next’?

I get it.  You’re not used to being in charge and you don’t know what to do. Well, it could be time for you to put down the riding crop and climate change dildo and move aside. I need someone that knows how to be in charge.

No druggies, please.

I waited three years for my current political party to get their shit together and assume the role. Now I need someone that understands it on Day 1.

Are you that dominant political party?  If so, please apply.  Unless you’re married.  I don’t do married men anymore.

I really don’t understand why every Democrat in the US is ”stunned” at Republican Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts on the day of President O-dreamy’s first anniversary (NYTimes: “GOP Victory Stuns Democrats”).  Honestly, I don’t.

Yes, it tooootally sucks to replace the late and great Senator Ted Kennedy with a truck-driving, American-Idol spawning, Cosmopolitan centerfold who has vowed to stop health care reform.  Boy does it suck.

And yes, it toootally sucks that this has invigorated what had previously been a cannibalistic Republican party (Hi, NY-23 and Florida Senate!) with a clear GOP rallying cry that will ultimately help with Republican recruitment for the 2010 midterms.

And finally, yes, it reaaaaally sucks that we don’t have the 60 votes we need to block inevitable Republican filibusters.

So why am I not drinking myself into a coma?  Why am I not rocking myself to sleep listening to the soothing songs of Sarah McLachlan?

Because Democrats deserved this loss and it will make them leaner and meaner going into the midterms.  It will, I promise.  Make no mistake: Democrats had lost their way and a little fear will go a long way toward correcting course. It worked wonders after the 2004 presidential election and it can work again to our advantage.

Don’t believe me that we were on the wrong track?  Look at the election results.  The Republican, Scott Brown, won in counties where unemployment is the highest, despite big Obama wins 14 months earlier.  Let me say that again:  A Republican won big majorities in high unemployment counties.  This is called a political paradigm shift.  And it’s also called a problem.

People don’t believe we are the party of the people right now. What that should tell Democrats loud and clear is: Take ownership over voter anger and start creating jobs. (Well, first it should say:  “Don’t run out-of-touch, lazy candidates who take voters for granted.” Then it should say: “Start creating jobs.”) It’s time to start getting it done for people who are hurting the most and recognize you have neglected that core Democratic principle for too long.

It also would be a good idea to take a piece from the Republican Senate playbook from 2000-2006. Republicans back then got a bunch of shit done, with smaller majorities.  They were on-message, they had the strong backing of the Republican President, they knew what they wanted to do as a party.

Yes, they over-reached, they got arrogant, they fucked up our economy.  But they were unified then and we are not now.  Figuring out what conservative Democrat Ben Nelson is FOR as opposed to what he is AGAINST might help as a starting strategy. What makes someone like Nelson a Democrat? Don’t start with Ted Kennedy’s dream and work backwards.

Democrats today could also learn from President Bill Clinton in 1994. He lost big majorities in the Republican sweep  that year and realized he needed a reset.  He didn’t arrogantly ignore political reality and push through universal health care anyway. Neither should the Democrats now fight against seating Brown right away to push through a mediocre health care bill that not a single Republican supports and that pretty much every progressive Democrat loathes.  That’s called a lose-lose.

Let me remind Democrats, a majority isn’t 60 votes, filibuster or not.  It’s 50 … with a tie-breaking Joe Biden.  So start coming up with a game plan that’s smarter than what you’ve been using.  You still have a few reasonable Senate Republicans—two from Maine and one from Ohio. Work that shit hard.  You have the Senate’s most valuable player in your caucus.  Use her to execute a plan.

I know this isn’t the happiest of anniversaries for our historic and O-awesome President, nor for the die-hard 34 percent who still approve of his policies. But all is not lost. We still have huge majorities in the Senate and the House, we have a wicked smart, charismatic, dreamy (oh and he’s black to boot!) President, and now we have a real fear of loss of power.  Those are advantages.  Take it, mobilize and run with it.

What was interesting was not so much the words used in the interview, but the tone, particularly the tone against Wall Street.  It was populist, firebrand-y and reminiscent of the 2008 campaign trail.  Specifically, Obama stated, “I didn’t think when I came to office that I would be helping out a bunch of fat cat bankers on Wall Street.”  Ouchie.

He goes on: “They [Fat Cats] still don’t get it. They don’t get it. They’re still puzzled: Why is it that people are still mad at the banks?  Well, let’s see.  You know, you guys are drawing down $10, $20 million bonuses and after America went through the worst economic year that it’s gone through in decades. And you guys caused the problem? And we have 10 percent unemployment? Why do you think people might be a little frustrated?”  Tough talk.  Mama likes.

Awkward timing.  The show aired one day before a scheduled O-meeting with the CEOs of the twelve largest banks in the US. Would Obama keep up the strong, populist tone?  Er, not quite.

Obama—from today’s meeting:  “My main message in today’s meeting was very simple: That America’s banks received extraordinary assistance from American taxpayers to rebuild their industry, and now that they’re back on their feet we expect an extraordinary commitment from them to help rebuild our economy.”  Hmm. That’s not very tough guy.

US Bancorp CEO Richard Davis described the meeting as “very productive” without disagreements or contention and sarcastically noted, “he didn’t call us any names.”

Is the tough O-talk working?  Earlier today, Citicorp announced it will repay $20 billion of TARP money and exit the program altogether. Also, Bank of America pledged shortly after the meeting $5 billion in loan support to small businesses and they are in plans to repay their TARP loan.  A far cry from the assistance taxpayers provided banks but possibly signs they are moving in the right direction.

In other Fat Cat ballbusting news, the House did pass sweeping regulations of the banking industry on Friday.

Zazzle.com, an online T-shirt vendor, is a Menlo Park upstart founded with early investor money from Google and is linked to Disney.  In 2007, it was ranked the 13th fastest growing company in the Silicon Valley. They operate a little like Cafe Press—aspiring entrepreneurs upload their own graphics to Zazzle’s website, where they can then modify T-shirt style, color and graphic layout. Once you finish using the T-shirt creator wizard, poof, you just created a T-shirt product that people can buy using Zazzle.com’s easy shopping cart/checkout modules.  Zazzle gets a share of all your sales, but you don’t have do anything but slap a funny T-shirt together. Create, click, sell, profit.

There appears to be no censoring of truly offensive logos on these self-made shirts, however.  Among the many “Obama = Socialism” and “Don’t Blame Me, I Voted for McCain” T-shirts, there are also your racist and violent anti-Obama shirts.

Exhibit A: “Barack Obama. Clown-in-Chief”

Exhibit B: “Send Obama Shooting with Cheney”

Exhibit C: “Abort Obama. Not the Unborn.”

Exhibit D: Need a bumper sticker?  “Cannibals are starving in Africa. Please send Barack Obama to help.”

Exhibit E: “Waterboard Obama.”

Exhibit F: “Obama’s Socialism at Work.” Complete with sombrero!

You get the point.

Final interesting point:  the Creative Director for Zazzle.com, Darren Luvaas, is a 2008 donor to Barack Obama.  In his online resume, he notes he “wrote the styleguide” for Zazzle.

John Doerr, initial investor in Zazzle, is a max-out contributor to Obama and many Democratic candidates, including our very own Patty Murray and Adam Smith.

Obama was at the Brookings Institution today to deliver his speech on the state of the economy. The speech was about what you’d expect: self-congratulations on the stimulus bill and all the fantastic things it’s done, some new ideas on job creation and infrastructure spending (sans price tag, of course) and a plea for more patience as we work toward fixing the problems of the previous administration (it’s always good to remind everyone again that this was an inherited problem).

The 2010 midterms are right around the corner, a point that isn’t lost on the O-Administration.  And it wasn’t lost in this speech.  The beginning of his speech retold the story of how he formed his economic team and the lay of the land as he took office.  Check it:

“We were losing an average of 700,000 jobs each month, equivalent to the population of the state of Vermont. The fear among economists across the political spectrum was that we were rapidly plummeting toward a second Great Depression. So, in the weeks and months that followed, we undertook a series of difficult steps to prevent that outcome. And we were forced to take those steps largely without the help of an opposition party which, unfortunately, after having presided over the decision-making that led to the crisis, decided to hand it over to others to solve.”

Oh snap.

Further into the speech, Obama addressed recent criticisms about the exploding deficit:

“In reality, the deficit had been building dramatically over the previous eight years. Folks passed tax cuts and expensive entitlement programs without paying for any of it – even as health care costs kept rising, year after year. As a result, the deficit had reached $1.3 trillion when we walked into the White House. And I’d note: these budget busting tax cuts and spending programs were approved by many of the same people who are now waxing political about fiscal responsibility while opposing our efforts to reduce deficits by getting health care costs under control. It’s a sight to see.”

Double snap.

Some other interesting tidbits from the speech: An initiative to simulate the successful “Cash for Clunkers” program, this time providing incentives for weatherizing homes: Caulk your home, get a rebate.  Also, there is approximately $200 billion in savings from the TARP program. Obama wants to direct it to small businesses to spur job growth.  Republicans want to put that money back into the Treasury.

Another interesting point: Obama will push for suspending capital gains tax for small businesses for one year. Wha?  Cutting more taxes (particularly politically loaded ones like capital gains) after just slamming the GOP for cutting taxes too far?  Um, OK.  Sounds like a move to the center for those midterm elections.  Expect more of these centrist initiatives as he rolls out his Stimulus 2.0.

A lot has changed on PubliCola during my absence and luckily I have changed too.  Eight weeks on a remote island with only cucumber water to drink and rice crackers to eat and Tyra Banks’ enormous forehead to ponder changes a “man.” PubliCola is more refined and, luckily for you, I am more refined too.  No longer the days of distasteful talk of O-gasms and O-rections.  So juvenile.  Cheap laughs … how very Borat.

PubliCola has investors.  It has an IPhone app.  It divines Seattle mayoral races.  This can no longer be a place of f-bombs and giggling when the number 69 is mentioned.  No.  We are an adult blog now and I must adjust to fit the times.

And what a time to be back.

The push for health care is in full force with the (overly) idealistic goal of passing the health care overhaul before the holidays still set in everyone’s Outlook Calendar.  Obama spent yesterday on the Hill trying to create some goddamn Democratic unity around the health care issue.  Meanwhile, Mr. Sour Grapes 2008 held a concurrent press conference accusing Obama of not being bipartisan enough in his dealings with Republicans on the health care issue. I wonder why Obama might be a little gunshy about reaching out to Republicans on a major policy initiative? Hmmm.

Additionally, just as Obama announces he’s sending more troops to Afghanistan, he is set to jet off to Oslo to accept the Nobel Peace Prize this Thursday.  Sweet, sweet irony.

Tuesday, Obama plans to deliver a speech on the economy.  Expect many self-congratulations over a better-than-expected unemployment report from last week. A preview of his job speech tomorrow can be found here. We’ll have the full play-by-play, rest assured.

Also on the agenda this week: a trip to Copenhagen to talk at the two-week United Nations’ climate change conference. Ex-VP Al Gore made a last-minute swing by the White House today to compare notes with Obama on the topic before his appearance at the conference.  Coming off the heels of Climategate, a scandal-of-sorts involving the public release of thousands of private emails of climate scientists, the conference will guarantee a sizable protest of climate change “skeptics,” who are now activated because these released emails supposedly contain evidence that scientists are overstating the case on climate change. The brilliant Nate Silver will be flying out to Copenhagen and blogging his thoughts on the conference.  We’ll re-package those thoughts with our own special brand of adult snark and sarcasm, of course.

Overall, a busy last push for the O-agenda before people check out for the holidays. All the spinning plates and O-pproval numbers hovering at the 50% mark begs the obvious question: is the O-agenda too full and the message then too diluted?

Sadly, because I have been off the grid, I have missed many important O-happenings.  Like, ahem, a certain columnist’s infatuation with the Presidential schlong. Endless updates on the public option … yes, we are still talking about that. The historic O-speech at the Human Rights Campaign, declaring Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell all but dead.  I have missed the FoxNews war of words.  I have missed much Republican frothing at the mouth, more Glenn Beck crying.  And, hello!  I missed the Nobel Peace Prize.Where’d that come from? I have missed everything!

How did you manage without my brilliance and insight into all things O-related?  If I didn’t feel so sorry for myself because of my current predicament I would feel sorry for you all.

Well, here is a little gobstopper of wisdom you can suck on today while I pack up my thongs and mesh shirts and get ready to rejoin the ranks of the other brilliant nerds at PubliCola. Do you remember over the summer when health care town halls were turning into the Thunderdome?  One Democrat enters, no Democrats leave? It turned all of us lefty, NPR-listening, latte sippin liberals into Henny Pennies, didn’t it? We’re going to lose the midterms! Obama’s in trouble! Help, the teabaggers are gaining ground! Things were pretty down and we are all freaked.

Except for one thing we forgot to consider—the Republican Party itself. People still don’t like Republicans.

Nate Silver, who is a savior for Henny Pennies like me, has a great little writeup about the Republicans’ branding issue.  He writes that the NY-23 race, where the moderate Republican dropped out of the race because the Rush Limbaugh-endorsed “conservative” candidate was too popular, is exactly why the Republican brand stinks right now.  The tag “Conservative” does well, as well as it ever has in this country, while “Republican” is doing, well, not so well.

In fact, the Rasmussen Poll reports that for the third straight month, more people are identifying themselves as Democrats, than with Republicans.  More to the point, a recent WSJ/NBC poll shows that the Republican party has a 25% approval rating, compared to 47% for Democrats.

And while I still worry that Democrats won’t pass a public option or climate change bill, thereby depressing Democratic turnout in 2010, thereby creating the real possibility of a 1994 replay, the Republicans are in a bit of a civil war for identity and unity around their party brand.  I take comfort in the small things.

Army General Billy Crystal and Obama National Security Adviser Gen. James Earl Jones debate increased troop levels

There is an interesting internal O-battle going on regarding Afghanistan.  And by interesting, I mean, only interesting to people who follow foreign affairs.  I don’t because I am a supermodel, and I really only care about how hot I look in this season’s swimwear and whether or not that bitch Tyra Banks is getting more ink than I am.

Foreign relations is really for folks who like to read a lot of words in the NY Times during one sitting.  I, on the other hand, am what you would call a “watcher,” not a “reader.”  In any event, here’s ObamaNerd’s round up of the Afghan situation.  In advance: You’re welcome.

Here are the toplines:  We are in year eight of the war in Afghanistan. We currently have about 62,000 American troops there.  The first elections were held this year and lots of fraud allegations ensued.  Taliban attacks have heightened and US deaths are on the rise. President O-Dreamy ordered US and NATO Commander General Billy Crystal to provide an assessment of the situation and make recommendations for getting the war under control and to its eventual end.  General Billy Crystal provided one and then took to the public (instead of up the chain of command) to make his case for more troops and press Obama for quick action.  Team Obama = Not so happy and now will be working to undo that damage.

How do they begin to undo the damage?  Release the team to the airwaves!  Obama’s National Security Adviser, General James Earl Jones, took to the Sunday political news shows to affirm that the Obama administration is not necessarily upping our troop levels by another 40,000 troops—a specific strategy put forth by General Billy Crystal in his speech.  In fact, General James Earl Jones said pretty clearly that General Billy Crystal is a washed up comic “has-been” and that General Crystal’s recommendation for more troops was “his opinion” of “what he thinks his role within that strategy is.”  Oh snap.  Girlfriend didn’t get her microbiotic shake this morning.

Gen. Jones also went on to say that the Taliban is not taking over Afghanistan and that there is no imminent threat to Afghanistan falling into al Qaeda’s hands.  This is a complete 180 from the speech General Billy Crystal gave last week in London.  In an unusally blunt and direct speech, Gen. Crystal appeared to blast the Obama administration for taking too long on the decision whether to increase troop levels, saying “this effort will not remain winnable indefinitely, nor will public support.”  He then put Biden on blast saying Biden’s recommendations for Afghanistan would turn it into “Chaos-istan.”

Insubordinate!  I wish the House of Reps would take more time out of the health care debate to pass a resolution blasting Gen. Billy Crystal for his insubordination.

The resolution of disapproval was a simple, one sentence statement, introduced by Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and states: “that the House of Representatives disapproves of the behavior of the Representative from South Carolina, Mr. Wilson, during the joint session of Congress held on September 9, 2009.”

The resolution passed 240-179.

Now, that that’s over.  How about health care?

UPDATE: The roll call has been posted.  Shocker:  Guess who voted “nay?”  Lefty liberal Rep. Jim McDermott (D-7, WA).  He joins his Republican colleagues Reps. Hastings, Reichert and McMorris Rodgers.

When I called Congressman McDermott’s office to inquire why he voted “Nay,” the front desk seemed a little surprised at the vote.  His DC office is closed so maybe we’ll get more of an idea why McDermott sided with his Republican colleagues on this resolution tomorrow.

SC Republican Joe Wilson having an "angry white man" moment during Obama's health care speech

There’s so much to cover from last night’s boner-inducing O-speech. Where to start?

Before we launch, let’s address the South Carolina elephant in the room.  What is going on with South Carolina?  Do they put fluoride in the water there or do they opt for psychedelics instead? Maybe it’s growing up in a state where sports teams name their mascots GameCocks and that irony in a Red State messes with their psyche. I don’t know, but the SC GOP ain’t doing so well and it seems like something either pathological or environmental is at play. Recap:

First, you have a philandering Republican Governor, then Republican Senator DeMint publicly pushing a health care failure that would “break” Obama. Then rumors of a closeted Republican Lt. Gov. Then the very right wing evangelical Chair of the S.C. Board of Education is discovered to be writing erotic porn on the web.  Finally (hopefully not!) we have the topper last night:  Republican Congressman Joe Wilson doing the very impolite, outside-of-protocol shout out of “You Lie” at the President during his address last night. Specifically, he was spontaneously reacting to Obama’s claim that illegal immigrants are not covered in the health care reform bill.

What’s been annoying in the post mortem since the Wilson blow up is the singular focus on how it is soooo outside of protocol. Decorum in the House, please.  No sudden outbursts in such a respected institution, please.  Can anyone recall the last time someone behaved in such an uncouth way?  Tut, tut.

Um hello!  How about some fact checking, please!  HR 3200, the America Health Choices Act does specifically preclude illegal immigrants from coverage.  Behold Section 246, page 143 of HR 3200:  “No Federal payment for undocumented aliens.  Nothing in this subtitle shall allow Federal payments for affordability credits on behalf of individuals who are not lawfully present in the United States.”  Pant on fire alert!  That’s the postmortem people.  Not only is he a total uncouth reactionary, but he’s the liar.

The South Carolina GOP is such a hot mess right now and I have every confidence that there is a class next semester at Harvard to dissect it. So let’s get back to the awesome O-speech last night.

Allow me the opportunity to say, it was just what the doctor ordered.  Har har.  No seriously.

The left needed to hear strong, affirming statements supporting the public option.  The House has declared that without a public option, there aren’t more than 60 votes to pass it.  The liberal lefties heard some comforting words. Seniors and independents who have coverage needed to hear this won’t affect their current coverage and/or needed to hear costs will be controlled. And with this target audience, he needed to definitively debunk the death panel and illegal immigrant coverage lies that have knocked O off his game. I think Obama was broader on the cost control piece and far more blunt and direct on the debunking of the lies.

Moderates in both chambers needed to hear that their voices, opinions and ideas would be welcomed (clearly a strategy to peel off moderate GOP’er Olympia Snowe and hopefully, her moderate GOP’er seatmate, Susan Collins). Even that old wingbag John McCain got a hat tip.  Strategy or theater.  McCain’s comments today seem more theater than any indication there will be a real effort to earn more moderate-ish Republican votes. McCain says today in email: “While I respect the President’s point of view, and hope for an eventual compromise, I believe his proposal amounts to an egregiously expensive and expansive form of government-run health care.”  Cross him off the list.

Poor Hillary, however.  Not a single acknowledgment of her groundwork or how the lies and deceit of 1993 sandbagged her plan for universal health care and set the stage for the showdown this week.