Washington State Grows by 100,000 in Last Year. King by an Estimated 25,000.

By Josh Feit, Wednesday, December 23, 2009 at 3:34 PM
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The Secretary of State’s blog reports the following news:

New Census projections show that we’re on the move in Washington — people moving in from other states and folks having babies.  In the past decade, we’ve grown by 13 percent and are now the 13th largest state!  And it could be Lucky 13 if we wind up gaining a new congressional seat.

We’ve grown by nearly 100,000 during the last year and — drum roll please — our new statewide population number is nearly 6.7 million. It’s 6,664,195, up over 770,000 from the April, 2000, number of 5,894,143.

A decade ago, we were the 15th most populous state.

And then asks the following question:

Is our population growth enough to pick up a 10th congressional seat?

The answer is inconclusive and depends on the official 2010 census numbers. The latest study* from Data Election Services says this:

The states of Illinois and Ohio have lost or not gained as much population as earlier in the decade, and now have lost a congressional seat in the new study.  The two seats shift to South Carolina and Washington (both states gain the seats by roughly 25,000 people to spare).

I was curious where our recent population growth is strongest. Here are the latest numbers from the Office of Financial Managment, which tracks population. King County added the most people in the last year, 25,000, not the largest percentage increase (1.3 percent), but not far off.

*Apologies, I initially posted the 2008 study which did not have Washington state gaining a seat.

  • Richard Pelto
    Apparently the societal muzzle on questioning population growth continues. Amazing that strains-of-growth awareness can occur causing some concern about so-called "growth managment." But never does any think that it's like a bathtub. Inevitably it overflows, drowning the quality of life for everyone. And just re-arranging the duckies does little to solve things like congested freeways, and polluted waters, and air. Somehow noone suggests at least addressing the flow-rate out of the spigot. And somehow it is "anti-immigrant" to note that the biggest factor in adding to the population "footprint" is illegal and legal immigration, which our brilliant politicians make sure are lured in by muzzling enforcement, making sure businesses can continue hiring the cheapest labor, providing welfare, subsidized housing, and free education. The saturation point is here, the ecological simplification has been maximized, but in order to pursue the buck we ignore all of this. Amazing!
  • Murgen
    The usual practice is for the bipartisan commission to make the blue districts bluer and the red districts redder, and any new district a toss-up. Otherwise, you won't get the votes you need on the commission, which represents the interests of the status quo.
  • growth, huh?
    100,000 more people? Sorta makes one glad we're expanding the mass transit system.
  • Faster than the other guy...no
    1. we have a redistricting commission in this state, the state leg does nto draw the lines, so our system is fairer than most states'.

    2. As usual the mathophiliacs fail to explain their math....but the problem in the analysis is, it's not a magic threshold thing, you just to have more "excess" population that the next state who's up for a possible new representative...you don't need a whole 'nother 712K.....

    it's like the cartoon about how fast you have to be when running from a bear.
  • RonK, Seattle
    And then it gets interesting.

    Most of the growth is in western WA, so the 4th and 5th CD boundaries move east and maybe deeper red.

    A whole district to carve out. Incumbents are traditionally protected, but who's an incumbent (or a rookie) in 2011?

    Is Inslee's seat open (as he runs for Gov)? Has McD retired? Adam Smith appointed? Could Reichert finally lose it in 2010? Who's the first-termer in Baird's seat? Does Larsen's district experience a red shift as a side-effect? Does a blue shift take out Reichert in 2012?
  • Perfect Voter
    Wow, a 10th CD. I wonder how our bi-partisan state redistricting panel will handle that? Where will that district be planted, and how will the boundaries be drawn so that Democrats and Republicans each have an equal opportunity to win it in 2012?

    And make no mistake, that IS how the process will be handled, public interest be damned.
  • Mount Baker Guy
    Wait - my math is way off. We'll be at around 6.75M, so we'll be very short for a 10th seat.
  • Mount Baker Guy
    It'll be close. If you take the approximate US population of 310,000,000 and divide by 435, you get roughly 712K people per representative. Let's round that to 720 to account for a bit more population growth nationwide by the time of the census. Assuming WA adds another 50K by time of the census, we'll be at 7.2M, just about at the threshold for a 10th seat. If we don't add people at the same rate - and the strange economic times make it a bit hard to estimate - we'll be short.
  • @3,

    They do break it down by city in the report (linked in the post). 592,800 to 602,000—a 9,2000 jump. So, 36% of the 25K.
  • I wonder if Seattle absorbed its share of that 25k? How about incorp King County vs unincorp?
  • Thanks. Will fix that.
  • Michael A. Rice
    Josh

    You have a typo:

    Washington State Grows by 100,000 in Last Year. King by and Estimated 25,000.

    It should be:

    Washington State Grows by 100,000 in Last Year. King by an Estimated 25,000.
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