The Latest in the Mayor's Race: End Game Approaching

By Erica C. Barnett, Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:22 PM
View Comments

These numbers represent the majority of the votes that are going to come in today (a second drop is expected later tonight):

Mike McGinn: 75,657 49.99 percent

Joe Mallahan: 74,448 49.19 percent

That’s a margin of 1,209—significantly wider than yesterday’s 515-vote gap, and a gain of 694 votes.

The latest count is skewing hard toward McGinn, indicating a possible late surge: 51.36 to 47.96.

Turnout, based on the number of ballots King County Elections has received and “processed,” is now around 50 percent, with around 30,000 votes processed but not counted. At most, if elections reaches their initial projection of 56 to 57 percent turnout, they have 50,000 votes left to count. If that’s true, Mallahan needs 51.2 percent of the remaining ballots to win this election; if it’s more like 30,000 outstanding, he needs around 52 percent. Either way, things look bad for Mallahan.

I’ve got calls out to McGinn and the Mallahan camp to see what they make of the latest numbers.

  • That's what she said
    If there were some way I could tie my extreme loathing of the lying sack of shit that is Kathi Lambert into this thread, I would do it.
  • AJ
    Council, dang it.

    I think I'm bitter about picking the wrong guy for the port.
  • AJ
    @36: Nope, they're undoing a power grab that Nickels made when he transposed his authority at the Port into the Mayor's office.

    Trust me when I say that the council's posturing was not an attack on McGinn, but more akin to someone stretching out after a huge weight was lifted off their shoulders.

    I wouldn't say they disliked Nickels, but he neutered them in some aspects, which is why Drago stepped into the fray and they basically bit him in the tuchus after the snowpocalypse.

    Holmes, though, I can't tell what direction the city administration is going to go with that. That might get a bit ugly.
  • Yep, more than 2000 puts this beyond recount.

    The council is already making its power grab.

    This is going to be an ugly transition.
  • McGinn got over 53% of the new votes.
  • McGinn lead almost doubled, to 2384.
  • Second ballot drop has been made. McGinn now over 50%.
  • sarah68
    @24: Stacyx3 is out searching for ballots in drop boxes.
  • That's what she said
    Susan just said she'll concede if it hits 60%.
  • That's what she said
    Dow's up to 58.33%, bitches! Plus 5,747 people so pissed of at Sue Rahr for voluntarily being in the same room with the bitchy newsreader that they wrote in "anyone but."
  • AJ
    @28 Since he's so much like Obama, I kinda worry he may overstate his progressivism, but I'm hopeful he'll stay true to that community organizer and volunteer-driven campaign spirit he's got going for him.
  • dacoach
    this is holy shit massive. i'm not a fan, but establishment folks in seattle have to be shitting themselves.

    it'll be interesting to see if Mr. anti-establishment sticks it to them or eventually becomes part of the machine.
  • Matt
    @26 And don't forget "ability to win election while spending 1/3 the amount of opponent".
  • Elwood
    Hey, everybody, once those last-minute, driven-to-Seatac votes are counted and McGinn's lead is padded all the more, let's file "proven ability to organize an effective GOV drive that's entirely volunteer-driven" under Management Experience.
  • Jason
    Any comments from those suggesting McGinn supporters should have been terrified after Wednesday's numbers because of some mysterious "trend"?
  • Jan
    Where is Stacey x3?
  • LR
    True Ross, but there were a helluva lot more ballots to count for that statewide race.
  • Ah yes, you're right Ross. Make this Act IV then... unless we consider Cantwell/Gorton a prequel ;P
  • RossB
    19: Don't forget Cantwell-Gorton. That one was extremely close as well (it flopped back and forth during the counting of the absentees).
  • michael
    @14 I think a recount can be paid for if the percentage is < 1% once it gets to be < .5% it is automatic machine and <.25% it becomes automatic manual

    that is my understanding.
  • Well, if the lead stretches McGinn's way again with tonight's drop, he can probably bag it. But then again, the signature-rejected ballots alone will probably trigger Act III of the recount/legal saga that began with Bush/Gore in 2000 and continued with Gregoire/Rossi in 2004... because we can't go five years without one of these ballot-legality in-a-close-race snafus.

    Being a compelling, charismatic candidate short on bullshit and high on amiable centrism, of course, would have solved the problem in any of those cases, because then it's not close enough for it to matter.
  • jeff
    There are at least 32,463 more ballots that aren't counted yet. Any that trickled in today are in addition to that.
  • sarah68
    Oh, no, tonight.
  • sarah68
    There's a bunch more to be counted tomorrow, right?
  • Argh... their money back
  • Jarvis, I don't think a recount is permitted unless the margin is within the RCW limits. No matter how much money somebody may have.

    You may be thinking of the pre-2005 rules, where the Democrats did have to ask for, and pay for, the second, manual recount. They got there money back when the outcome was reversed.
  • RossB
    I wonder if there is no trend at all with the votes, but just random fluctuation. The first sample (the first night's total) showed McGinn winning by a smidge over 1%. Now, it is a smidge under 1%. If McGinn wins by 1%, then each sample could just be considered a random sample. Does this make sense to those who know more about statistics than me? Are there any statisticians in the house?
  • Zelbinian
    @7

    King County Elections won't officially certify the results of this race (or any other, for that matter), until after Nov 23rd. I'm assuming that those pending ballots would need to be resolved before then if they are to be counted, but you might want to check with them, because I could be wrong.
  • Jarvis
    Sounds like McGinn's GOV operation is bearing fruit. However, I'm sure Mallahan can find the $$$ to pay for a recount even if the margin's outside the recount zone.
  • @6, they are lining up at Conlin's door, no matter who wins.
  • Do the 4700+ ballots currently waiting for signature verification have to get dealt with one way or another before a determination is made about an automatic recount?


    Yes.

    There can't be a recount until there's a certified "final" count. Those that haven't been verified as of some point prior to 11/24 will be taken up on that date by the Canvassing Board, which adjudicates all such issues.

    See King County's results schedule.
  • Westie
    I'd say that it is all over, barring a miracle.

    Mayor McGinn will be sworn in just in time for the start of the business exodus and the revival of the secessionist movement in West Seattle.

    Should be an entertaining four years of chaos.
  • Good Grief
    Good point about the recount zone and hugely good news for McGinn today. Do the 4700+ ballots currently waiting for signature verification have to get dealt with one way or another before a determination is made about an automatic recount?
  • Middle Class Enviro
    I can see the establishment lining up outside Mike's door now.
  • Morning Fizzy
    Great news for McGinn.

    Holmes at 62.95% - could be the biggest margin over an incumbent ever. Of course, most lose in a primary.
  • Pete
    Looks like McGinn's camp was correct that the second batch would trend Mallahan and thereafter for McGinn. If the gap widens any further, I'd have to say this is over.
  • michael
    extra bonus for mcginn is that this takes it out of the recount zone (for now).

    b/c you need <2000 vote diff and <.5% diff

    so if he can hold steady Mallahands will have to hit up his donors to pay for a recount. odds of that happening? pretty good unless the gap widens.
  • Gordian
    Good news for the McGinn camp. And good news for those of us prone to anxiety and high blood pressure.
  • John
    This is very good news for Mike. Gaining 700 votes in a day is a lot of progress. I believe this is about 50K additional votes from yesterday, which means mcginn took about 50.7% of today's count.
blog comments powered by Disqus