Josh doesn’t like predicting the election spread, but it’s a tradition for me and a to-remain-anonymous political friend, so here are my VERY SPECIFIC predictions for this election (legally binding and guaranteed to be true, of course). Read on only at risk of outing yourself to anyone watching as a huge political nerd:
I- 1033
My Prediction: LOSE with 48 percent. This one will be closer than it should be for such an asinine proposal (in short, it would cap tax growth, creating a permanent recessionary economy), but voters, after learning the consequences of past Tim Eyman initiatives, will make the right choice this time.
R-71
My prediction: WIN by 51 percent. This one will be closer than it needs to be.
King County Executive
My prediction: Dow Constantine WINS with 55 percent. Susan Hutchison has been looking increasingly desperate in recent days, relying on supposedly scurrilous revelations about Constantine’s interaction more than a year ago with a female staffer (except, not) and weird stunts like yesterday’s “Women for Susan” rally, which was hijacked by Constantine supporters. None of it has worked. And: Late turnout is going to center on Seattle, where candidates (McGinn, Constantine, Mallahan) have been focusing their efforts. All of that favors a solid win for Constantine.
King County Assessor
My prediction: Bob Rosenberger WINS with 35 percent. This one’s kind of a crapshoot: A five-way race with two relatively prominent Democrats (Rosenberger and Lloyd Hara) one Republican (Graham Albertini) and two unknowns, so don’t hold me to it, but I think Rosenberger squeaks through with 35 percent of the vote.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 3
My prediction: Rob Holland WINS with 56 percent. Holland’s opponent, David Doud, has been running one of the ugliest campaigns we’ve seen this year against Holland (accusing him, among other things, of “mismanaging public money” because the state of Washington once paid him too much unemployment compensation), and it’s rubbed folks the wrong way. Perhaps more importantly, the Port Reform campaign that formed this year has been pushing hard for Holland and Position 4 candidate Max Vekich.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 4
My prediction: Max Vekich WINS with 51 percent. Vekich’s opponent Tom Albro has garnered his share of endorsements and has a little bit of name recognition as head of the company that runs the Seattle monorail, but we still think Vekich will get enough play from Port Reform’s general-election ad and mailing blitz to win this one narrowly.
Mayor
My prediction: Joe Mallahan WINS with 51 percent. I don’t think this one will be clear tonight. But I think ultimately, Mallahan pulls it off. Low turnout doesn’t help McGinn, who’s pushing hard for young voters to turn out today. Josh, of course, disagrees with me.
City Attorney
My prediction: Pete Holmes WINS with 52 percent. The current city attorney, Tom Carr, is unpopular. (Exhibit A: His campaign rally in West Seattle this morning, above). And despite PubliCola’s incredibly influential endorsement of Carr, I think this term will be his last.
Seattle City Council Position 2
My prediction: Richard Conlin WINS with 69 percent. It will be a miracle if Conlin challenger David Ginsberg breaks 40 percent in this race. More than a miracle: I think it’s impossible.
Seattle City Council Position 4
My prediction: Sally Bagshaw WINS with 65 percent. That may be conservative: Bloom came out of the primary with just 18 percent of the vote to Bagshaw’s 51 percent.
Seattle City Council Position 6
My prediction: Licata WINS with 60 percent. Again, that might be conservative. Jessie Israel’s Cathy Allen-run campaign went over to the law-and-order dark side in the final days, and it’s hard to see that winning her many votes in liberal Seattle. Plus, she hasn’t given voters much of a reason to dislike Licata, who will win his fourth term handily.
Seattle City Council Position 8
My prediction: O’Brien wins with 54 percent. Robert Rosencrantz’s desperate last-minute attempt to smear O’Brien for “supporting tolls on all neighborhood streets” may win him a few conservative/NIMBY votes, but O’Brien has several things going in his favor. First, he hasn’t (unlike Rosencrantz) run twice before. Second, his campaign mail and signs are distinctive and effective (unlike Rosencrantz’s). Finally, he’s a likable guy who’s run a strong campaign. He gets all the McGinn votes, and then some.
Seattle Housing Levy
My prediction: WINS by 60 percent. It’s Seattle. It’s the housing levy. No way it’s going to lose.
Seattle School Board, Position 5
My prediction: Kay Smith-Blum WINS with 56 percent. Every couple of years, Seattle voters “throw the bums out” and replace the School Board with a new slate. Now it’s Mary Bass’ turn to go. Plus, Smith-Blum has been winning most of the endorsements.
Seattle School Board, Position 7
My prediction: Betty Patu wins with 52 percent. Actually, I have no idea on this one. Patu has won her share of endorsements; Chin has more mail. Patu has experience working directly with kids; Chin has managerial experience. Who knows? I’m going with Patu.
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your language is imprecise. certainly you don’t mean that I- 1033 will lose by 52 percent. Which would mean that 72% of the vote is cast NO, and 24% vote yes. I imagine that you mean 52% will vote no to 48% voting yes. Same with ref 71. You change your language further along in the post saying “win with xx%” for specific candidate races.
I can’t believe I don’t know the answer to this question, but is there a minimum percentage that a candidate must receive to win the Assessor’s race? Or is it just the candidate with the most votes?
@2
Plurality wins this year.
Ouch. You really think Bloom will go down that hard? It would be a miracle if he won, but it has to be closer than that, right?
Oddly, the quality of reporting has completely collapsed the closer we get to the election. More non-news, delivered in a lousy format. Let me challenge Josh for predictions. Publicola lasts less than 2 years.
licata gets 55-57 max.
I’m with you on most of it, but:
1. I think R-71 will fail, though it will be a long, agonizing failure. It’ll open with a decent lead for “Reject” that slowly contracts as the King County votes get counted, but I think it ultimately fails by less than 3000. This thing shouldn’t even be on the ballot, much less be this close, but this has been the little referendum that could, and this being an off-year election it will just draw enough conservatives to get it rejected.
2. I think Mallahan will win, and I think it’ll be pretty clear. McGinn pretty much ceded the older North to Mallahan, and they’re far more likely to vote. There will be some “no, wait til Wed/Thurs when the late deciders start showing for McGinn,” but they won’t be enough to forestall Mallahan’s win.
3. I’d really be shocked to see 1033 finish 52-48 oppose. The opinion polls were showing far less support for 1033 than opposition for R-71, which suggests that it’s not selling well to moderates (or at least the $3MM the No on 1033 campaign raised has been put to good use).
4. Last one: I think Mary Bass might just hang onto her school board seat. But there are a lot of ifs there. Some people think she’s a thorn in the side of the district, others see her as the problem, and the Times endorsement of Smith-Blum could be boiled down to “she’s not Mary Bass, and she’ll also not be Mary Bass.” But the school board seats are such odd ducks nowadays. Who knows.
Over/unders like on West Wing eh, Erica?
I-1033
Yes: 44%
No: 56%
Too many typical Eyman supporters now rely on public money to make their home and car payments.
R-71
Approve: 52%
Reject: 48%
I agree this one will be closer than it needs to be.
King County Executive
Dow: 52%
Ms. Hutchinson has looked desperate, but the Fox News crowd has never much let facts get in the way.
King County Assessor
I think Hara wins, but I have no idea by the percentages.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 3
Rob Holland 58%
I may move if we actually elect Doud.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 4
Too close to call. I hope Vekich, but I think this is the race most likley to generate a recount.
Mayor
Mallahan 55%
So is the Washington Poll or the King 5 poll right? I agree with this one not being clear tonight because McGinn almost certainly won the early voters. I think late voters will go for Mallahan on the basis of the terrible robocall, McGinn’s abandoment of his #1 issue, and the public safety endorsement of Mallahan.
City Attorney
Carr 51%
Higher crime helps Carr, not Holmes, oddly.
Seattle City Council Position 2
Conlin
I personally like David too much to give a percentage, but I also don’t think it will be close.
Seattle City Council Position 4
Bagshaw 60%
Law and order Mom. Easy pick in these tough times.
Seattle City Council Position 6
Licata 53%
I think this will be much closer than people expect. The real question is how soon Jessie starts campaigning for Godden’s seat in 2011.
Seattle City Council Position 8
Rosencrantz 53%
Robert’s third time’s the charm campaign gets him a seat. O’Brien didn’t get all the McGinn votes in primary, though that might help him in the general because his flip-flop on the tunnel wasn’t as well publicized. Off all the races, this is the race where local media failed voters the most.
Seattle Housing Levy
Yes: 52%
This will be closer than people think in this economy.
In 6.5 hours, we’ll see how stupid/brilliant we look providing this detail.
1. It looks like she got it around the 3rd prediction but didn’t change the syntax for the first two.
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Now, I’m not a McGinn fan, film at 11, but I think despite the moderates polling heavily towards Mallahan, McGinn has one edge going into the election: The gay vote. R-71′s mobilizing the LGBT community and a sizable number of these voters are also pro-Stranger ERRRRRR pro-McGinn. If McGinn wins, it’ll likely be because of this kick of R-71 mobilized LGBT voters. (And yes, Michael, I do remember your previous comment about gay friends who are pro-Mallahan. From my experience and observation of peers/media/public opinion/etcetcetc, it looks to me like most of them are sold on McGinn.
On the flip side, per the poll numbers most of the pro-McGinn voters voted early, as their minds were already made up. So much of McGinn’s push is going to come earlier rather than later. McGinn stumpers cite that the undecideds are sliding his way and they’re trying like hell to get the word out, but McGinn’s campaign has stumped hard to get the vote out since day one, and it’s a tired message that undecideds and fencers have heard dozens of times already. If they weren’t sold on the rhetoric in August or September, and if Mallahan’s weaknesses didn’t sell them into voting McGinn then, the same tired rhetoric shoved down their throats in October’s probably not going to turn them around. Awareness does not equal participation, and getting your message out does not equal votes on your behalf. People do still make their own decisions and take your messages with a skeptical grain of salt.
I’m honestly not sure how the Mayor’s race will break when all is said and done. But there is no trend that firmly indicates to me that the vote is on one or the other’s side.
My heart goes out to Tom Carr — even though I didn’t vote for him. That’s very sad.
Chin seems more legit than that UW cheerleader who ran four years against DeBell (who’s unchallenged this year), but Patu has the creds and neighborhood support.
As I said in the original predictions, I think KSB would have won tonight if not for her silly paperless “green” campaign.
From your lips, er, fingertips to God’s ears, ECB.
Erica is wrong.
I like Josh’s predictions more.
Seattle Housing Levy passing by 60%? Gosh Erica, although I really hope you are correct, most people watching this closely will be happy with 50.1%. Any levy is tough right now, and I’ve had some pushback from people I’ve talked to who are generally really generous with their taxes.
@8 I don’t understand what you mean by O’Brien “didn’t get all of the McGinn votes in the primary.” If you mean not everybody who voted for McGinn voted for O’Brien (or vice versa), of course that’s right (and pretty obvious). But O’Brien received more votes than McGinn did in the primary. As someone who lost to O’Brien, I would have thought you’d have known that.
@9 -
Will some of the younger gays that take the Stranger seriously support McGinn? Sure. But I’m not seeing that amongst gays over 25.
Additionally, while both McGinn and Mallahan have said they support R-71, and full marriage equality, Mallahan has donated to the Approve campaign, was listed as a co-host for a fundraiser, and cut a YouTube video in support of R-71. And he has a lesbian in a very prominent position in his campaign. Gays that pay attention have noticed all of these things.
Also, re: the Carr rally, maybe Carr’s supporters thought the advertised event was a ‘car rally’ and since they’re not into cars they didn’t show up
Sigh. I have to go with Josh on the mayor’s race, so Erica, I will buy you a beer at Columbia City Ale House if I’m wrong. But I don’t see that happening. Here’s why.
- Polling predicted McGinn in 4th place right before the primary; telephone polling captures people/dinosaurs who still use land lines.
- Mike has solid support in Ballard, Cap Hill, Georgetown, SE, basically everywhere where there are people with less excess income…which means…most of us.
- Maybe old establishment gay guys like Mallahan, but all the lesbians I know except Tina Pododowski like McGinn…that is probably because Tina has lots of excess cash.
- Let’s talk brown people. I don’t know any people of color who support Mallahan. Latinos, African Americans, Africans, Vietnamese, Filipino, etc…again, least likely to be around a land line for a King 5 poll, but solidly in the McGinn camp.
- If you put stock in polls, the King 5 poll yesterday showed no lead for Mallahan.
- In the final analysis…I am betting on McGinn by a few of those chin hairs of his. I just hope we know the outcome by Friday so one or the other side can grieve and talk about moving to Portland.
I don’t know where the north got the rap of being pro-Mallahan. It’s a real mixed demographic up here, especially on the Lake City side, because it was the last affordable housing area in the City. McGinn has not ignored us; I’ve received several mailings from him in the last month. My street is a regular United Nations, all ethnicities, all ages, and the people I know are voting for McGinn.
There’s a little too much stereotyping going on. Stereotype Capitol Hill all you want, but not the areas where you don’t live.
Ballot measures end correctly, but by larger margins, ECB — more like 54-46. Dow by 56-44. Mayor is a toss-up; results will trickle in like they did after the primary.
Rosenberger for Assessor by 35%; you nailed that one. Port, Holland by 57%; Albro by 54 (names matter in down-ballot races, and Slavic names are a turnoff to some voters; sadly).
Holmes by 54. Bagshaw by 63 (David’s only hope was for her to self-destruct; she didn’t). Conlin by 67 (who’s this Ginsberg?). Licata by 60 (try again Jessie, with a different campaign consultant). O’Brien by 53.
I think the close races will be:
McGinn/Mallahan = Mallahan by 4
O’brien/Rosie = Rosie by 2, but really close
The rest, the usual suspects.
But, how about which victory or defeat party will be the best: my thoughts…
1. Seattle Glass Blowing – very mellow, unless Drago is there drinking it up.
2. Fremont Abbey – just in case I want some organic,
cold pressed apple cider.
3. Spitfire – I can’t see Bagshaw getting wasted and
drinking home drunk. Maybe, Israel after she gets kicked to the curb by Nick.
4. Westin – Those port guys know how to party.
5. Edgewater – Dow can grab my assin’ anytime. Better watch out, Joe.
6. Cafe Paloma – If Dickie is serving that crappy
root beer again…
7. Twist – a little too white bread for me with the muni league and Albro.
8. Cristos – All the way to Alki, Tom?
9. Rosie’s house – Great. Another place to get
organic apple juice (Rosie doesn’t drink)
10. War Room – Only if they have Miller lite…
See ya there.
@22: Bagshaw, driving? Doubtful — she lives right downtown!
“the people I know are voting for McGinn”
Not to single you out, Sarah, but of course people you talk to are going to agree with you. You’re going to associate with people who are like you and who fit your world view, while avoiding people who don’t. Of course those people are going to see many things the way you do. Our friends, family, peers and colleagues are a crooked sample to infer any sociocultural or sociopolitical conclusions from.
@24
Agreed, talking to people you know isn’t always the best way to get a feel for how the public at large is viewing things.