These are not our endorsements. Those are here. These are our predictions.
I-1033:
Josh says it loses.
Erica says it loses.
R-71:
Josh says it wins comfortably.
Erica says it wins.
King County Executive
Josh says Dow Constantine wins.
Erica says Dow Constantine wins big.
County Assessor
Josh says Bob Rosenberger wins.
Erica says Bob Rosenberger wins.
Port Commission Pos. #3
Josh says Rob Holland wins.
Erica says Rob Holland wins big.
Port Commission Pos. # 4
Josh says Tom Albro wins.
Erica says Max Vekich Wins.
Mayor
Josh says Mike McGinn wins it*
Erica says Joe Mallahan wins.
City Attorney
Josh says Pete Holmes wins.
Erica says Pete Holmes wins.
City Council Pos. #2
Josh says Richard Conlin.
Erica says, “Boring.” Richard Conlin wins.
City Council Pos. #4
Josh says Sally Bagshaw wins.
Erica says Sally Bagshaw wins.
City Council Pos. #6
Josh says Nick Licata wins.
Erica says Nick Licata wins.
City Council Pos. #8
Josh says Robert Rosencrantz wins.
Erica says Mike O’Brien wins.
Proposition #1, Seattle Low Income Housing Levy
Josh says it wins.
Erica says it wins.
Seattle School Board Pos. #5
Josh says Kay Smith-Blum wins.
Erica says Kay Smith-Blum wins.
Seattle School Board, Pos. #7
Josh says Wilson Chin wins.
Erica says Betty Patu wins.
*You don’t believe me, but remember, I’m the only one who predicted Nickels would lose the primary and Mallahan and McGinn would go through.
Tweet
Yes, Josh, you are the greatest political prognosticator of our time, though your basketball skills leave a little to be desired.
What? No Assessor prediction?!
Yeah. But I did have 4 steals yesterday. And all for fast break points!
Can you predict any of the other cities’ mayoral and city council races. Tacoma? Bellevue even?
I know Seattle is the big time but you’re picking it all the way down to school board.
More importantly than who wins, you should predict when we’ll know. Example: “The winner in the mayor’s race will be confirmed on Nov 20th”.
Finally, I think KSB could win over Mary Bass, but her silly paperless “green campaign” hampered her efforts severely.
@2,
Sorry for that oversight. Our predictions for assessor are up now.
I might have missed it but was there polling on position 8?
What about the charter amendments!?!
I don’t think Constantine will win big, but define “big”. Other than that, looks good. And the ones you split (save for the mayor) I think will be pretty damn close.
“Big” is eight points or more so 54-46 is big.
The change King County wants isn’t Sarah Palin, so there it is.
Dow’s ads took time but hit home esp. the last one tying her to that conservative think tank book.
@8
In politics, if you win by one it’s a squeaker. If you win by two it’s a landslide.
If Robert Rosencrantz wins, it will be because of a lot of false rumors he spread about O’Brien. It will also be one of the very few times that an anti-choice candidate won in Seattle.
O’Brien is the better choice on transportation, a woman’s right to choose, education and so much more!
If Robert Rosencrantz wins, it’ll be because 60,000 liberals dropped dead before they mailed out their ballots.
Erica apparently thinks her vote counts as 100,000 regular people with the prediction that Dow wins big.
McGinn wins. O’Brien wins big.
The outlook for I-1033 and Susan Hutchison is pretty grim. Even the Sound Politics crowd and the wingnut trolls at Horsesass seem to think they’re going to loose both of these.
As for the rest I agree in all of the races where both Josh and Erica picked the same. McGinn will win in another squeaker. Albro in the port race. O’Brien for city council position 8.
U. Washington Poll says that your predictions are right…
Too bad the UW Poll is horrible
Josh–
I hope you’re wrong about Albro and Rosencrantz.
Okay, I exaggerated in #12. Maybe 58,000.
It’s true isn’t it that Tom Carr never even reported to SEEC on his hidden donation from the strippergate attorney and the media has had this for weeks.
Apparently Carr was intent on keeping it hidden.
You would think a city attorney violating the rules, and not coming forward, until outed by someone is news. Even if you’ve endorsed him.
Seems like Erica is betting on the unions and Josh is betting on the enviros to pull out the votes.
But in the port races, the unions and the enviros are together in supporting Vekich for port. So I’m betting on Vekich to win on with an extra point or two from grassroots efforts.
19. You would think that the OPA under Pete Holmes would have rightfully knocked down the racial discrimination and other indiscretions by the SPD. Apparently, however, Holmes was intent on being a tool for Grand Wizard Gil Kerlikowske and Greg Nickels by maintaining the status quo and burying the issues within the SPD following a half-baked ‘due process’. And yet, the urbanists endorse him.
You don’t want Tom Carr cracking down on crime, but you do want Pete Holmes to help the SPD protect their right to assault black people for no reason.
Woah, Gomez @21. You’ve got to be the only person within hailing distance of Seattle who thinks that Pete Holmes was a tool for Nickels & Kerlikowske. (Or was that irony? Sometimes hard to discern in this format.) Nickels refused even to meet with the OPA Review Board. Holmes and the other board members found that Kerlikowske inappropriately meddled in the internal investigation of the officers who fake-”found” non-existent crumbs of crack in the lap of the wheel-chair-bound Mr. Patterson. If Holmes was a lapdog for the outgoing administration, they sure didn’t think so.
Gomez you are totally wrong. First of all Holmes was not on the OPA he was the Chairman of the OPARB – that’s the citizen review board. The police wouldn’t release unredacted reports and claimed that OPARB was violating their union rights. The court has just ruled that Carr and the police were wrong and that Pete and OPARB were correct.
Okay, I got my wires crossed there, but I don’t see how being the head of an impotent watchdog qualifies him any more.