I'd say that gives McGinn the edge, assuming this poll doesn't reach cell phone users (a demographic that probably tilts towards him). Of course, it's all going depend on how all those undecideds are swayed in the next 30 hours or so...
Trevor
Great. Just what we need: for this election to stretch on another two weeks.
Transpo guy
Gordian @2:
McGinn also has a much stronger grassroots operation to get out the vote. If this is true, it shows a repeat of the same pattern leading up to the primary where late polling showed McGinn with huge momentum and then, with each set of returns, McGinn winning by bigger and bigger margins. If McGinn wins, it'll show the power of grassroots politics in era of all vote-by-mail. It'll also prove Josh a genius.
Jessy Bagshaw
Good eye "Narrows"! For that and other reasons Publicola really needs to hire someone with a bit more computer savvy than merely "microsoft certified"
Michael M.
@4
Mallahan has a lot of labor behind him this time around, and they've been out canvassing and phone banking every day. I was doing canvasing in the 37th this weekend, and we didn't see a single McGinn person canvasing, and apparently that's been the norm (nobody has come across a McGinn doorbeller).
I did see two people at Purr around 1130 on Saturday handing out lit during Purr's annual Halloween Party. And then the lit hit the floor.
But Purr on Tuesday will be awesome. Happy Hour til results come in, and then, if you support McGinn, you can walk down to the War Room for his party!
Gordian
Actually, I had a McGinn doorbeller on Saturday, and he said they were out en masse. Not sure what the means.
north seattle
I saw 8 McGinn people canvasing Lake City on Saturday and about 20 last weekend in Lake City/Maple Leaf/Northgate.
Michael M.
Huh...so they're focusing in North Seattle, and Mallahan is focusing SE Seattle. Interesting.
Gordian
And West Seattle, which is where I live. It's clear each recognizes the areas they need to work on.
push polling is not internal p
Statistical dead heat on publicola means Mallahan is leading still.
KING uses Survey USA, so I'm guessing this is an objective sample.
We'll see if we have to do a freaking recount in three weeks or not.
Zelbinian
@6
Speaking personally as a McGinn supporter, I have been out lit dropping at least three times in completely different neighborhoods. Each time there were quite a few people gathered and we covered a lot of ground.
I also heard that there was supposed to be an effort to reach the younger, cell-phone only crowd by going out to bars on Halloween, which is probably what you saw.
raincity calling
Regarding a potential for a recount -- I hope that we do a public hand count no matter what given the article I read in the QA News that never appeared in the Seattle Times or anywhere else.
The article, which was published after the Primary election, revealed problems with the new ballot scanners. It seems the scanners fail to record all votes. King County Elections was forced to scrutinize ballots and machines to make sure all votes were recorded. Per the article, KCE stated that in the General Election they will not be able to be as rigorous due to time constraints. If I were the candidates I would be making damn sure that KCE is just as rigorous in the General election as they were in the Primary. Here is the link to the article:
I was one of the group doing door to door get out vote earlier this week. I remember a day that we callected 6000 vote. 80% of them voted for McGinn. Those are people who would never have voted had we not knocked their doors. It looks like McGinn will have a good night tomorrow night. We are non-partisan get out vote group. We were not telling people who to vote but they were saying -- McGinn
Jon Morgan
Dead heat = 5 point McGinn win. The polls have consistently underestimated his support. Cell phones.
I picked up the Stranger's fishwrap for the first time in a long while during lunch, and now I see where the anti-SurveyUSA sentiment on this and other sites is coming from: Eli Sanders is talking shit about them claiming he's doing so because they got the clown car primary wrong. Likely, he's under marching orders because they've shown their pet candidates polling poorly, and it's in their best political interests to somehow illegitimize those numbers.
And of course, Eli is hardly the brightest bulb in a box full of burned out bulbs (the guy did become Darcy Burner's unofficial campaign spokesman during the last two Congressional campaigns, despite his alleged responsibilities as a news journalist), so trust his word at your own peril.
