Seattle's Chief Techie Sees Future in Two-Way Video

By Glenn Fleishman, Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 3:28 PM
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Mayoral candidate Mike McGinn revived the notion of a city-wide bond-financed fiber-optic network that would bring optical cables directly to homes—so-called fiber to the premises (FTTP) or fiber to the home (FTTH). Last week, I spoke with McGinn about broadband and he leaned heavily of the idea’s utility and feasibility on a 2005 committee report and 2007 financial analysis.

For me, McGinn was long on big-picture issues and short on specifics. For example, why build such a network in the first place, even if it could ostensibly be funded (as the financial report indicated) out of revenue bonds, that would repay bond purchasers only from income from running the system?

McGinn’s answer was that Seattle needs to stay ahead in broadband speeds to stay competitive. Okay.

So, to actually answer the question, I turned to Seattle’s chief technology officer (CTO), Bill Schrier, who was installed just this week as president of the Metropolitan Information Exchange (MIX), a group comprising municipal information technology officials of towns and counties of 100,000 citizens or more. Schrier—an active blogger and Twitter user—doesn’t know whether he’ll have a job when a new mayor comes into office, but he had just celebrated his 25th year in city service when I spoke to him this week.

Schrier has been a tireless advocate of expanding broadband service in the city, and has a track record on the municipal side to show for efforts. Over the last 10 years, Seattle has built what now amounts to over 400 miles of fiber-optic connections to reduce costs paid to communications firms and improve efficiency among its offices, as well as those of county, state, and federal agencies within Seattle, the Seattle schools, public safety (police, fire, emergency), Seattle City Light, and the University of Washington.

Schrier says that 100 Mbps FTTH is required (as a starting point), not just faster DSL or cable, because it enables two-way high-definition videoconferencing and high-bandwidth collaboration. While you can fire up a Webcam any time and use a variety of instant-messaging software to have a two-way chat, that’s a far cry from HD video, which starts to approach the feeling of being there. HD cameras are increasingly affordable; the software exists; broadband is the missing piece.

While this might seem like an edge case for putting fiber to every home that wants it, Schrier makes a good case based on Seattle’s ability to compete as a place to live and do business.

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Noting all the Microsoft spinoffs and ventures by ex-Microsofties, Schrier said, “Those sorts of companies survive here because they can attract talent, but they also need to collaborate,” with other companies—as well as Microsoft. “They can collaborate by driving to meetings, or, they can collaborate by two-way HDTV if it’s a available.”

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Schrier regularly talks to businesspeople who would like to increase the amount of telecommuting time they offer to employees, but because employees can’t get fast enough or reliable enough connections at home, it’s impossible.

“Many companies might stay in Seattle for other reasons, but if that high-speed networking is important to them, if telecommuting is important to them, they’re going to go someplace where FiOS [Verizon's FTTH offering] exists,” Schrier said. In the Seattle area, that could be Bellevue, Kirkland, or Redmond, pockets of Verizon service leftover from the days in which its predecessor, GTE, was a competitive telecom provider in limited areas.

Schrier also believes that FTTH would enhance remote education, by providing a high-quality two-way channel for lectures and consultation. “Why do you drive or take the bus to the University of Washington to sit in a seminar of 7 or 8 people that could be conducted by video?” he asked.

Remote learning has been pushed for years, but the bandwidth to allow individuals at home to have high-quality two-way communications, as opposed to going to commuter distance-learning centers, is quite new.

Schrier is blunt about the potential of the current service providers for Seattle offering fiber to the home. “Qwest can’t do it. Comcast has no reason to compete here.” Broadstripe, currently in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, lacks the financial resources as well. Qwest’s current strategy is bringing fiber to neighborhoods, and then offering higher-speed DSL over shorter distances. Comcast, the highest-speed local provider, can offer “up to 50 Mbps,” but can’t cheaply offer the 100 Mbps that Schrier would expect from an FTTH network.

The high-speed broadband would be coupled with telephone and television services as part of a triple-play, something Qwest can’t provide. (Qwest partners with DirecTV.)

The idea of city—or country-built fiber isn’t new, but many early systems suffered from high expectations, political fights, or expensive early equipment. The cost of the box in the house to which a fiber cable connects has dropped dramatically, while fiber speeds have increased and core network equipment costs are down, too.

Schrier also sees leveraging a larger city-wide fiber infrastructure for other projects, including plugging 700 MHz LTE (Long Term Evolution) devices into the fiber backbone. Public-safety departments can use a special, dedicated 700 MHz band with the same technology Verizon and AT&T are deploying commercially for their fourth-generation cellular networks. (See my Seattle Times article from this last Monday about 4G networks.)

In addition to public safety, Schrier wants to use a fiber network to tie in smart meters on every home to enable a smart grid: A utility network that can constantly monitor for outages, remotely control and view hardware and power lines, and fight electrical power theft. Most electric utilities are running nearly 19th century networks; Seattle City Light knows about outages today mostly because people call to report they have no power.

With smart meters, when meters go offline, the utility knows immediately, can plot the outages on a map, use line-mounted cameras in some cases to spot the problem, and dispatch crews precisely. Schrier said Seattle City Light has a $120-140 million project planned for a smart meter/grid update, and could get 50 percent of that funding from federal Department of Energy stimulus allotments.

Government is often criticized for eliminating competition, inefficiently providing private services, and removing the profit motive. However, market failures are often where governments are asked or begged to step in, and, when accomplished correctly, can provide new opportunities for private enterprise.

Schrier expresses no particular political ideology about the public/private divide. He’d be happy as punch, he said, if companies wanted to build out fiber. And he’s hoping, potentially with separate stimulus money, to start a buildout of a single neighborhood as a test project—Beacon Hill leapt readily to his lips based on its poor connectivity, but nothing’s been decided.

Schrier could see structuring a project in which a private firm built the network for the city, and multiple private companies managed offerings over the network that was built. In Tacoma, the power utility’s Click Network provides television, but broadband is wholesaled through several home and business resellers.

The city’s CTO doesn’t want to have to build a network, but he will try to get one built if that’s what’s needed. “Once you have a level playing field like that, the competitors come out of the woodwork. But you have to have some sort of network” to get started.

If we leave our broadband—and thus competitive—future to the current incumbent providers, “Seattle will be the last to get that.”

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  • Johney Utah
    The Utah Telecommunication Open Infrastructure Agency (UTOPIA) is your original model. Over 16 cities working to provide ubiquitous FTTP.
  • Chris Stefan
    @13
    Broadstripe, Qwest, and Comcast are doing such a horrible job of serving the city of Seattle that I'm sure you would get a substantial number of their customers on day 1 if the city was to offer FOIS like services.

    Businesses do consider the telecommunications infrastructure when deciding where to open an office, warehouse, or plant. Currently many neighborhoods and even major parts of the Duwamish industrial area are unattractive due to the poor availability of telecommunications services. A company I worked for 5 years ago had to back out of a lease on a new distribution facility because Qwest was the only realistic offering and they couldn't provide us with the service we needed for at least 1 year after our move-in date. We ended up leasing a different facility in Tukwilla that happened to have access to XO and Level-3 fiber.

    Beyond that you have to consider the other potential benefits to the city such as remote meter reading, power management, and real time outage notification. The cost savings to City Light and SPU may be enough offset much of the cost of the investment. Also the ability to serve as a backbone to both the wired and wireless communications needs of public agencies operating in Seattle can be a major win.

    Finally to those who say the speeds offered by fiber to the premises far exceed the needs of most users, let me remind you that the speeds common today for cablemodem and even DSL were considered to be far beyond what most users would ever need just a few short years ago. But that was before World of Warcraft, iTunes, YouTube, or Hulu.

    A city owned fiber to the premises network serving every address in Seattle would be as visionary today as the vote in 1902 that authorized JD Ross to build the Skagit dams and create Seattle City Light.
  • Glenn Fleishman
    @13: That's the question, certainly. Verizon doesn't break out its FiOS earnings separately, but they claim it's going very well, and are planning to reorg the company around killing copper landlines in favor of fiber on one hand and wireless on the other.

    Private providers must turn a profit; a revenue bond funded effort must simply repay the bondholders. It's a far lower bar with the same financial targets over a 20-year period instead of with constantly changing growth goals.
  • Jakey
    Glenn, thanks for this article. It's the most in depth overview of McGinn's platform plank on FTTH that I've seen thus far. As a long time employee of companies that provide metro fiber services, long distance, and wireless services I still have to question the financial viability of this project. There's a reason that no private provider (including VZ FIOS) has ever been able to profitably provide fiber to the home on a large scale metropolitan basis. You need a fairly high adoption/penetration rate to make the financials work (buildout and operation of the network is very expensive). This is similar to the health care debate going on right now: the only way to make it affordable and still profitable is to require that everyone participate and pay.

    Mayor Nickels wanted this project done years ago, but even after the year long analysis and report, there were no commercial providers who found the financials viable enough to make the investment (and this was before the current economic downturn hit).

    If we're going to use bonds to fund this, what happens if the city fails to achieve the required subscription success to make the bond payments? Do the taxpayers then have to bail out the bonds? Does the city then have to raise rates to the point that it drives subscribers to other alternatives?

    Bill Schrier has a great vision for what could be done with all that bandwidth, but people have been predicting this for years and I'm not aware of any large city that has done it successfully yet. (Please tell me if there has been one... it would be great to know how they made it work.)

    As a tech geek, I'd love for this to become a reality, but I question whether this project is the best use of scarce funds over the next 4 years, given all the other demands on the budget for basic life services. 100Mbs seems pretty high up there on the Maslow hierarchy.
  • @4, if the dream of telecommuting to keep cars off the road, and engineers in pajamas is truly ever going to happen then a network that can handle pumping a 140mb CAD file in a minute, rather than 30, then the freeway investment has to switch from concrete to stands of glass.

    The poor new Microsoft employee sold a house on Queen Anne Hill will stop being a cruel real estate joke, and a purposeful and knowing act.
  • Glenn Fleishman
    One thing I didn't ask Schrier about nor discuss above is: what's the minimum acceptable up/down rate to run a modern business that's not necessary an Internet business? I suspect that 5 Mbps over 1 Mbps is in the range for a large percentage of even small businesses.
  • Glenn Fleishman
    @9: "Having a society of 602000 people fund video conferencing is an uphill battle"

    Again, the 3rd party, independent feasibility study showed that revenue bonds could be sold to cover the buildout cost, and that income at various levels (penetration %) would pay bondholders and produce a modest to large surplus. Those numbers need to be looked at again, but that's the starting point.

    In terms of videoconferencing, this is a common and regular part of businesses with multiple offices and telecommuters. It's only becoming more so.
  • Big difference?
    Professing the rarity that the promoted technological promotion turns out to be the actual end use keeps Richard Kielbowicz gainfully employed at the UW. Extending technology to personal social consumption has been a key component of the majority of communication technologies deployed over the past couple centuries. Having a society of 602000 people fund video conferencing is an uphill battle.

    Many major companies have had video conferencing for a couple decades. The reduced social queues have been studied. A more realistic experience is always the promise made with each attempt to reach out and touch someone in a new way.

    A key differences that favor this technology, that I see, are:
    The workforce that is technology based and dependant is quite large (as compared to people using telephones at work and wanting them at home 100 years ago)

    the cost of deploying the technology is offset, as you have pointed out, by the business users, and employees (as opposed to 100 years ago when farm workers or factory workers could not bring the textile machine and raw material home to work on. A designer working at home today that wants to share a large file has some data transfer barriers, as you have pointed out.

    Nobody knows that once deployed the internet would be used for Facebook.
    Videoconferencing? Maybe.
  • Kate Stetson
    @6 I am a telecommuter for a tech company in San Jose, CA. The current highest speed Internet connection available in my S. Seattle neighborhood is only barely enough for me to send and recieve data necessary for my job. The providers in this area have no plans to improve speed. If my job requires the ability to move more data, I'll have to live someplace else. Seattle is competing with cities all over the world and we are quickly falling behind in this important and necessary part of infrastructure.
  • Glenn Fleishman
    @6: Not video phone, 2-way conferencing. Big difference! There are probably billions of minutes of video calls made via Skype, iChat, various IM programs each year now, but the quality isn't so critical.
  • Great story.

    Still, I can not help but think about the 25-year-old question of what people would do with speeds that exceed the ability of the twisted pair of copper wires. The video phone keeps returning for a headline, but not really as the end use of the speed, but that's fine.

    The business and municipal arguments are fine for leveraging public money for that part of the utilization. Nobody is competing at those high speeds, and yet that is where many of our local businesses work internally.
    I think the business use is there.

    100 years ago we had somebody listen in on Seattle telephone calls to hear what we used the telephone for. As soon as AT&T convinced AT&T that people not only want to chat on the telephone, but are willing to buy the phone service the social market drove the technology out to more people.
    Some other social experience should be possible in order for the non-business public to pull the the technology to them. Otherwise, this is a big struggle for broad support.
    What is different now is that the business use is much greater for fiber, and more people work in those environments, so, maybe that may be enough to move this forward without re-inventing chatting on the telephone.
    We shall see.
  • Glenn Fleishman
    @4: I feel like you read the first paragraph, not the article.

    Schrier says that without high-speed broadband available in the home for business and education purposes, including avoidance of commuting and for collaboration, Seattle will have a tough keeping businesses here. Or bringing in new ones.

    The triple-play is a way to finance the network.

    And, as noted here and in the previous article, this would be bond-funded, not paid out of the city budget.
  • hmmmm
    Someone please explain the necessity of this "toy" when the city is cutting services and criminalizing homlessness. This is proof that McGinn is worthless when it comes to understanding the real economic issues in this town.
  • Broad minded
    So in fact McGinn's about broader issues.
  • Marcee Stone
    Bill Schrier rocks!!!
  • Beacon Hill Broadband Bailout!

    There's also evidence that smart meters can motivate people to cut their home energy use:
    http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2009/...
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