While everybody was busy watching the mayor’s race, some potentially great news for King County Executive candidate Dow Constantine from yesterday’s ballot drop got overlooked: Despite the fact that Susan Hutchison has 36 percent of the vote so far (to Constantine’s 23 percent), the latest results actually show Constantine coming in ahead of Hutchison—with 28.74 percent to Hutchison’s 28.20 percent, about 180 votes.
That could be a sign that late voters are becoming aware of Hutchison’s shortcomings as a candidate—bad news for her in the general, when all the attention will be on two candidates, rather than divided between eight.
UPDATE:
Asked about Constantine’s good showing on yesterday’s count (24,000 votes), Hutchison spokesman Jordan McCarren said: "The special interests backing him [Constantine] spent a lot of money in the last few days before the election on mail."
McCarren namechecked SEIU (the Service Employess International Union), which helped fund a $50,000 indedpendent expenditure on Constantine’s behalf that included a mass mailing. McCarren was also quick to put the Constantine numbers in context: "The bottom line is Susan won by a landslide."
McCarren’s explanation makes sense, but it also raises a serious question for Hutchison: If the same "special interests" who put Constantine over the top in crunch time (the SEIU’s contribution was $41,000) plan to back Constantine in the general election, doesn’t McCarran’s explanation spell bad news for his candidate.
"I think the special interests are going to continue to spend money on him in the general election," he said.
Update by Josh Feit.
Do you mean he was ahead among the small sample of the vote counted yesterday? The geography of which ballots were counted makes a difference. If Seattle was represented this is nothing to be surprised by. You’re making my head hurt with this shit.
Constantine coming in ahead of Hutchison—with 28.74 percent to Constantine’s 28.20 percent, about 180 votes.
Huh?
@1: Poll voting is gone, so there’s no geography involved. Why would a selection of randomly-chosen mail ballots favor Seattle?
That being said, we should probably wait for the next group of ballots to see if this trend toward Constantine continues, but it’s certainly newsworthy.
You mean he did better in the second batch but overall she is still leading by many percentage points?
“That could be a sign that late voters are becoming aware of Hutchison’s shortcomings as a candidate”
Uh, why? Why couldn’t it be a sign that late voters are younger, and maybe younger voters are breaking for Dow?
Ha! Funny post.
The first head-to-head poll and by whom will be the teller.
Using a reverse logic similar to the post, perhaps having only two candidates will allow the voting public to concentrate on what they are voting for rather than being confused having to choose between 8. One guy advertising just took votes away from his own folks.
If Dow didn’t get more votes from all that last minute electioneering, then it looks like he will have a rough road to hoe.
All said, Hutch is going to have a real fight on her hand. However, what she has going for her is the failed King County government under Dow. Before she was fighting the Staters along with the County budget busters.
The August 18th Primary demonstrated that Dow Constantine is a politician with a price tag. Special interest groups such as the SEIU have bought his election and will work hard to do the same come November.
The Hutchison spokesman is spot on when he called Dow out for being a special interest puppet. The gimmick worked in the Primary, it won’t work in the General Election.
“If the same “special interests” who put Constantine over the top in crunch time plan to back Constantine in the general election, doesn’t McCarran’s explanation spell bad news for his candidate.”
Ha ha no. McCarren is explaining a particular spike in voting not casting off the election as lost b/c of special interests. He is acting as a spokesperson for his campaign and pointing out the fact that Dow is receiving the big bucks from groups who want specific favors from him in the future.
I think this misses a much bigger point. Hutchinson is the only conservative in this race to vote for, as opposed to 4 strong, nearly-identical progressives in Constantine, Jarrett, Phillips, and Hunter (it’s a bit of a stretch to call him a progressive, I guess, but he is definitely very much to the left of the spectrum).
In other words, you can pretty much count Constantine/Jarret/Phillips/Hunter as one candidate and Hutchinson as another, which means she’s totally screwed.
So I assume Hutchison won’t be taking any money from “special interests”. I will look forward to her refusing all checks from businesses, business lobbies, the BIAW, and anyone else who lobbies the county on any issue.
A majority of voters in King County don’t see environmental groups, unions, and supporters of reproductive rights as eeeeeeeeeevil special interests. They support protecting the environment, workers’ rights, and health care.
Witness, well, every local election in recent memory. Even Dave Reichert was forced, grudgingly, to vote to protect the environment, in order to beat Darcy Burner.
Indeed, as a Republican running in a heavily Democratic county, Hutchison is screwed. The more she reminds voters that environmentalists, union members, and pro-choice groups support Dow, the more of his work she does for him.
60-40 for Dow? More?
It’ll be like the ’91 Huskies vs. the ’08 Huskies…
2005 General Election: Ron Sims (D) 55.62%; David Irons (R) 39.57%; Gentry Lange (G) 4.56%; Write-Ins 0.25%.
2009 Primary Election: Four Democrats (Constantine, Phillips, Hunter, Jarrett) 58.83%; Two Republicans (Hutchison, Lobdell) 39.49%; Two screwballs (Lippman, Goodspaceguy) 2.52%; Write-ins 0.16%.
History repeating itself?
@13
Given the results of recent partisan races that were voted on by the entire county I think the Sims/Irons race can be taken as pretty much a baseline.
The others to consider would be both Rossi/Gregiore contests.
Hutchison’s only chance is enough voters won’t know her politics and will vote for her because she was that nice lady who read the evening news for all of those years.
It seems to me that this post is somewhat of a stretch. There are any number of reasons why Dow did well in the recent batch of votes; to say that voters have figured out that Susan is a Republican strikes me as unfounded speculation. Maybe the embarassment of Susan’s lawsuit was a factor? I’ve also heard that Seattle voters were a bit slower due to having so many city council races to figure out. The foregoing is also nothing more than speculation.
I think that Susan will probably do a bit better than Irons did, and that she will probably also get a higher percentage in the general than the did in the primary. The main reason for this guess is that the general election will have proportionally fewer party activists and hence more voters who will be influenced by their memory of Susan the TV anchor. But I still think that Dow will win, and that it won’t be extraordinarily close.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that the recent batch of ballots favor Dow because people with lives tend to be busy. People with lives tend to be rational. Rational voters support Dow.
Jordan McCarren is as delusional as his candidate.
Today’s numbers: Constantine gets 16,776 and Hutchison just 15,959 in the last dump and Susan’s 15-point election night lead is now below 10 points. I wonder what Jordan McCarren thinks about that?
Wait….2 more votes just came in! Both were for Dow! He wins by z landslide!!!!!!
You mean he did better in the second batch but overall she is still leading by many percentage points?