Turnout So Far=Low.

By Josh Feit, Saturday, August 15, 2009 at 3:30 PM
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As we head into the final weekend before King County’s first-ever all vote-by-mail election on Tuesday, only about 14 percent of the more than 1 million registered voters have mailed in ballots so far, according to the elections office .

Turnout for the election was expected to be around 35 percent. That’s a little high for an off-year, primary election. But election officials were taking into account all the new voters who registered in 2008.

There will have to be a major uptick in voting for turnout to hit those expectations.

Traditionally, small turnouts favor conservative candidates (as do off-year primaries.)

Given that liberal King County Council Member Dow Constantine is ahead in the polls among the Democrats vying for King County Executive (including the more conservative Democrats who are running—suburban State Rep. Ross Hunter and suburban State Sen. Fred Jarrett) and given that super liberal mayoral candidate Mike McGinn is actually pushing a conservative message (Nickels’ tunnel is "the biggest tax hike in Seattle history"), it’s not clear how conventional wisdom will play out on Tuesday night.

  • http://novbm.wordpress.com/why-not-vbm/

    There's the starting list of many of the problems I've found so far. VBM is horrible, it's a joke, and all the lies they sold it on are turning Washington's elections into a joke.
  • ivan
    @ 30:

    That discussion is over. The vast majority of King County voters prefer all-mail voting, their numbers grow every year, and the trend is irrevocable. We'll be an all-mail state soon, and the sooner the better IMO.

    Go to an election center if you must, but polling places aren't coming back.
  • Timothy
    I'm not a fan of the All Mail-in Ballot. I know I'm a political geek, but I like election day. I like everyone voting on the same day. I like the feeling of community when I meet my poll workers again, and thank the for doing their service. I like the simplicity of the process.

    I voted by mail for the first time this election. Received a notice that my signature didn't match. Sent in the requested form with a new signature. Just checked, and apparently I didn't mark some box or include some required document, so am off to the Elections office to do this manually. It matters to me that my vote gets recorded.

    I'd still prefer holidays on Election day. I say boo to All Mail-in Voting, and the turn-out seems to show that it doesn't make a significant difference.
  • Micaphone
    Speaking of voting, track your ballot through the mail mail here: https://info.kingcounty.gov/elections/mailballo...
  • Ian
    @17 My Dad never received his ballot either!
  • I'm saving myself for Tuesday.
  • TB
    The question is "who benefits from lower turnout?".

    Lower turnout usually means 'older turnout'. Incumbents and moderates/conservatives will likely benefit if turnout is typical or low. GOTV is the x-factor. Who has raised the money to hire a competent staffer or two in order to mount a strategic GOTV campaign? That's for Publicola to ferret out. There is no replacement for volunteers door-knocking high proclivity voters in this scenario, imho.
  • hram
    That one is only on the Nov ballot because there are only two candidates
  • Brian
    Was just finishing up my ballot and realized I don't have position 2 in the city council race on my ballot. Anyone else see this happen to there's?
  • hram
    Sarah - Alas its not that you cant afford a condo its that you dont want to buy an affordable condo in columbia city.
  • Sarah
    The City of Seattle had contracts with snow plow companies that they could have activated; they didn't have to buy them. And Nickels finally admitted that perhaps they should have used salt. The amount of salt that would have been used during that period of time wouldn't have damaged (salt-water) Puget Sound.

    The quality of life indicators for people who can't afford market-rate condos hasn't been very good under Nickes' reign. He doesn't care about us.

    So why is he "technically" the most progressive candidate? And what does "technically" mean?
  • watcher
    If you run the primary in June then the legislators barred from raising funds during session would be at a big, big, disadvanrage.

    oh wait......
  • Seattle Politico
    Despite the fact that some people think Seattle should have spent millions on snow plows that we don't currently own and usurped a federal salmon recovery plan (as part of our ESA recovery plan) and poured salt all over the roads and into the PSound....Greg Nickels is technically the most progressive candidare in the Mayor's race! And has been damn effective which is why we are at the top of every list that looks at quality of life indicators; sustanability, green, economy, etc.!
  • RonK, Seattle
    This year's ballot is overloaded with unattractive options.

    Sometimes the key to consumer behavior isn't the consumer -- it's the product.
  • Mikos
    The mid-August primary is a nightmare. I suspect the legislature will revisit this thing because the only reason for it is the convenience of county election departments. They have always complained about that the turn-around time from the historic September primary to the November election was too short. I like Sam Reed but he got this one wrong and he should fix it. Also, while the mail-in ballot lowers the threshold for voting it's probably not low enough. A stamp-free envelope might help a bit but, honestly, turn out is going to be miserable. It's always lower than the happy horse s--t estimates from the election managers.
  • Micaphone
    2 of my coworkers never received their ballots, despite being registered. It's totally crazy since I've been convincing them to vote for my candidates of choice since June.
  • Hank
    Historically this is not too much different than past odd year primaries. Turn-out in August 2007 was only 25% countywide and I'm sure a lot of those votes came in toward the end.

    Besides the No on Bag Fee folks, most campaigns have very little $ and are having a hard time reaching out to voters. That and the fact that a lot of voters know very little about these candidates is causing people to sit on the ballots.

    It will be interesting to see what happens in the last few days of voting. Maybe the traditional poll voters will sit out due to an uninspiring ballot.
  • Jeff
    @13 If someone tried to vote for someone else the signatures wouldn't match and the ballot wouldn't be counted.
  • Publicola should publish a special primary day extra fizz with the locations of all the election night parties! I'm sure that would be appreciated by all the publicola fans.

    Andrew
  • Barnerd
    ...they had my address wrong and had sent the ballot already to a nonexistent household.


    Well, imagine if it was an existing address and someone wanted to vote for you, lorax... Hopefully they'd pick the right candidates, 'eh?
  • Barnerd
    RE: Ms. Stephanie..."As we head into the final weekend before King County’s first-ever all vote-by-mail election on Tuesday, only about 14 percent of the more than 1 million registered voters have mailed in ballots so far, according to the elections office ."

    Moreso (I love that word, even if it's not correct English), this chain of command concern really is more than just a small problem in my unhumble opinion. Can we not imagine when such issues may become a problem? Should we not act BEFORE it's a problem?

    If we could go back in time and get rid of the 'Butterfly Ballot' in Florida in '00...would we not do it? Would we want to have these ballots here?

    Hmm.

    Mr. Feit. Ms. Barnett. Time for a big story on the issues of our voting process! I'd suggest that you contact Gentry Lange, owner of the High Fidelity bar in Bremerton, voting rights advocate and candidate for Bremerton's City Council's 7th district seat.
  • lorax
    I freaked out and called KC Elections a few days after everyone else had their ballots and I still hadn't received mine. Good thing I did because they had my address wrong and had sent the ballot already to a nonexistent household. If I hadn't been a giant nerd, I wouldn't have called and it would be too late for me to vote. I imagine there are lots of stories like this.
  • Stephanie
    I think the ballot being lost in a shuffle of mail happens, but it probably less than people not knowing where their polling station is and giving up or having no time to go to their polling station.
  • Barnerd
    Let's see...

    Do we really want to send in our ballots? Really? Yes, yes yes yes. I know - it's easier. BUT, do you really know what happens to your ballot? Sure, it'd take some great conspiracy to 'lose' ballots, and surely that'd never happen...

    The bigger issue is a lack of control over where the ballots actually ARE. Where does my ballot go? And, since the USPS loses up to 3% I believe of all mail that they move around...but, it's not like any election will go down to such a small percentage...

    WAIT! Then we at least can go into the voting booth and do it safely and securely, right? I'm sure that electronic voting is secure, right...?
  • Sarah
    People lose stuff in their house. I'm a longtime voter in every election and I lost the stupid ballot for 4 days.
  • Hank @6,
    So, what's your theory on the 14% (or really 13.8%)?
  • Hank
    Turn-out should be up a little due to the fact that we are all voting by mail now. Turn-out in off-year primaries was very low for poll voters compared to absentees. Now that everyone is voting by mail, it should go up.
  • Jeff
    I think Elections got it's prediction backwards. All the new voters means the turnout percentage should be lower, because the total number of registered voters is higher.

    Basically, thousands of people who never bother to vote decided to vote in 2008 because Obama was so awesome. They're still registered, but aren't going to lift a finger until maybe 2012, if ever. 2008 was an Obama-surge, not a permanent shift in electoral participation.

    The interesting number to look at will be raw number of voters for the primary vs. the same number 4 years ago. Then maybe adjust it for population growth, instead of voter registration growth.
  • Flossy
    @3
    Sunday is a slow news day & I feel I have a shot at this. Besides, screw Progressive Prism!

    Here Goes:
    In the future, we'll Tweet our votes via anal probe!
  • I haven't read through all the comments of the day yet, but I'd definitely consider Progressive Prism's to be a good nominee.
  • Progressive Prism
    When everyone votes, Democrats win. That's true for most of the country.
  • Flossy
    Its too bad that the Settle Mayors race and the King County Exec's race fall one year after the presentational election. A liberal city like Seattle shouldn't sacrifice its best candidates to our overly conservative primary system. Especially this year where there are excellent progressive candidates on the ballot (Mike McGinn, Mike O'Brien, Dow Constantine)

    Hey young people! Remember that high you felt after last years democratic caucus?

    Remember how superb it felt after Obama won the Democratic Party Nomination?

    Well...You can feel it again. We have the chance to vote former heads of the Sierra Club to both the Mayors office and the City Council of a major American City (McGinn & O'Brien). Pause for a second and chew on that.

    If 18-35 year-olds voted, these elections wouldn't even be a contest. Now go fill out your ballot, plop it in the mail box and toss back a cold one. You deserve it!
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